Dr. Blair, how do you figure? (letter by Russell D. Hoffman, Nov. 8th, 2001 to the president of the Center for Defense Information, + Dr. Blair's response, + rdh's response to that)

Subject: Dr. Blair, how do you figure?

To: Dr. Bruce Blair, President, Center for Defense Information (www.cdi.org) bblair@cdi.org
Re: Your comments heard live on Headline News just now (Thursday evening, November 8th, 2001)
Cc: "Barbara Boxer, Senator (CA, D)" <senator@boxer.senate.gov>, governor of California
From: Russell Hoffman, Concerned Citizen, Carlsbad, CA

Dr. Blair,

I just heard you refer to deaths from a nuclear power plant meltdown in America as being in the "scores, maybe hundreds", plus, you added, almost as an afterthought it seemed, "perhaps thousands of premature cancer deaths later".

According to government reports such as the CRAC-2 report, you are off by several orders of magnitude (and that report, in turn, minimizes the dangers in a number of ways and is several decades old and out of date with population trends and current (if suppressed) knowledge about low level radiation dangers).

You then go on to say that the real danger is Osama bin Laden getting nuclear weapons, which, according to you, could cause something resembling Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that is, killing hundreds of thousands of people.

You are forgetting (or ignoring) at least two things:

First, one Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapon, if set off at "ground zero"  (the colloquial and inappropriate term for where the WTC used to be) would kill, instantly, perhaps about 5 to 10 million people, depending on when it was exploded, and whether it was at ground level, at the top of a tall building, or in an airplane or missile a little higher above the city.  So let's not pretend it will be some small town somewhere, like Hiroshima or Nagasaki were.  That's unlikely.

But second, you've completely forgotten about another, much more grave worry.  Before I say what it is, let me give you some background information:

A nuclear power plant contains about 1000 times more nuclear waste than a nuclear bomb contains.  Its spent fuel pools contain many times that load, since for most power plants, the spent fuel pools have never been emptied and the plants have been open for decades, turned over their fuel (which was often given to them free by the government) approximately every five years.  Some plants have as much as five times their reactor load of fuel in their spent fuel pools -- OUTSIDE the containment domes, I should add.

Enough background information.  Now, the second thing you've ignored is the effect of a nuclear bomb on a nuclear power plant.  This would spread the nuclear waste around in fine, vaporized particles -- the most dangerous form.  It would immediately doom millions of people who live "downwind" to a horrific and painful death, and then later, it would cause latent cancers around the world which would kill hundreds of millions more.

Osama bin Laden, or a fairly small asteroid for that matter, can cause this type of radioactive waste vaporization disaster.

Fearmongering is a sin.  Being realistic is a virtue.  We have to close the nuclear power plants immediately, switch to renewable energy sources, and hide the waste deep, deep, deep underground (however, I am not advocating Yucca Mountain as a solution to our nuclear waste problems).

I look forward to your response.

Sincerely,

Russell Hoffman
Concerned Citizen
Carlsbad, CA

For an essay about the effects of nuclear weapons (not counting if they are used on a nuclear power plant, please check out this document:
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/no_nukes/tenw/nuke_war.htm

For more information about how vulnerable our nuclear power plants are, please visit this URL:
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/onofre/index.htm

And lastly, for a list of "25 simple ways to blow up a nuclear power plant and condemn millions to death and misery", please check this document out:
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/onofre/simple25.htm


At 07:28 AM 11/9/01 , Bruce Blair wrote:

Dear Russell,
 

If I can find time I will respond in greater detail.
 

Now, you say in your message below that a single Hiroshima-sized nuclear bomb (which is of course 5 times smaller than one of the 100 kiloton bombs assumed in my calculations) would instantly kill 5 to 10 million people.
 

If you can demonstrate this calculation s plausibility with any scientific credibility I will be eager to see it.  Please send it to me.
 

Meanwhile, I cannot take your other numbers seriously.
 

Sincerely,

Bruce Blair
 

To: Concerned Citizens
From: Russell Hoffman
Subject: RE: Dr. Blair, how do you figure? (response from Dr. Blair, with add'l commentary by rdh)
Cc: president@whitehouse.gov, "Barbara Boxer, Senator (CA, D)" <senator@boxer.senate.gov>, governor of California, info@cdi.org
Re: Another "talking head" shows he's full of superheated air-- and yet the news services let him present his illogic as if it were fact
Date: November 9th, 2001

To Whom It May Concern:

This morning I received the response [shown above] from Dr. Blair to my letter to him of yesterday afternoon (the original letter is now posted at my web site; the URL is given below).

I find his response nothing less than ludicrous!  It would be laughable if it weren't so dangerous to let ourselves get bogged down in such trivialities as he is attempting to do.  Time is short, we all know that, and Dr. Blair's response to my letter will not solve the important issues.

He is playing a game of inches.  He is attacking me based on his conjecture as to the exact size of the fireball, the multi-spectral radiation blast, the firestorm, the overpressure waves, and other aspects of a 20-kiloton bomb versus, say, a 21-kiloton bomb, as well as the exact population of New York City at some unspecified moment.

If these values do not exactly match his own "calculations" (which I have not seen), he "cannot take [my] numbers seriously" as he puts it.

Uh huh.  Of course, the point he wants to avoid talking about is that we need to shut the nuclear reactors down.  If a terrorist gets a nuclear weapon and blows up a nuclear power plant with it, there will be hundreds of millions of deaths.  Dr. Blair wishes to reject me for mentioning this, but since he cannot do so (since it is a legitimate fear), he plays his little game of inches.

But the fact remains that a single "Hiroshima-sized nuclear bomb" could wipe out a very large chunk of Manhattan, and parts of the other boroughs as well.  And there's a good chance the terrorists won't be using a Hiroshima-sized bomb anyway, making it all a trivial distraction.  My point was that it would do a lot more damage (kill many more people) if they set it off near Indian Point or some other nuclear power plant than anywhere in New York City.

What does Dr. Blair mean by "meanwhile, I cannot take your other numbers seriously"???  My numbers were crude, thumbnail calculations, the point being, that renewable energy solutions are not the terrorist targets that nuclear power plants are.  (If he wants more accurate calculations about how many people have died already because of nuclear power, and will probably die in the future, Dr. Rosalie Bertell has done more such studies than anyone else I know.)

How many dead from a nuke bomb hitting a nuke plant would he prefer to hear, so he would take the numbers "seriously", and realize that we better close those plants and get that waste buried somewhere, real soon (and I'm not advocating Yucca Mountain as a solution!)?

Included below this letter are a few relevant facts I dug up this morning so we can play Dr. Blair's game of inches.

Dr. Blair is for sure forgetting about all the big events that occur in downtown Manhattan, such as the Statue of Liberty birthday party (July 4, 1986), where an estimated 4 to 6 million extra people crowded lower Manhattan for the air show, boat show, marching bands, fireworks, and other festivities (the "Liberty Weekend" celebration was broadcast to 1.5 billion people in fifty-one countries around the world, according to an Ellis Island Foundation press release).  So what's his beef?  (Maybe he missed that party, but I didn't! -- Best trumpet solo of our National Anthem I ever heard, by a high school bandmember from Ohio (or was it Iowa?), on the steps of a bank in the financial district.)

Some days and times of day it would be less people killed, some days and times of day it would be more, but I say that my "5 to 10 million" figure was a good rule of thumb.  Not worth arguing about, at any rate.  There are vastly more important details to discuss.

Dr. Blair is for sure forgetting about all the deaths of the rescuers that would undoubtedly occur, as people from all the remaining boroughs pour into Manhattan to try to save people, thus irradiating and dooming themselves to a horrid death in a matter of weeks.  But perhaps that's not instant enough for Dr. Blair, even though their deaths are certain the instant the bomb explodes.

Dr. Blair is for sure forgetting about the firestorm that would consume vast numbers of people, shortly after the blast.  He's forgetting about all the caustic and carcinogenic chemicals which would be released in this process.  He's forgetting about the massive secondary explosions that would occur from the gas tanks and trucks, pipelines, propane tanks, etc. throughout the city, and the buildings that would fall in the next few hours and days as their insides are gutted and burned.  But again, perhaps these deaths just aren't instantaneous enough for Dr. Blair to include them.

In Hiroshima they had 30 fire stations.  6 survived the blast.

He's forgetting that Colombia University, in Manhattan, has an unknown (but probably very significant) quantity of nuclear waste on site, as do a number of hospitals and other institutions in the area.  There also might be a nuclear submarine in the harbor "protecting" our waters, which could be destroyed by a nuclear attack, causing the release of its radioactive payload.

Maybe he's just forgetful.

I urge all citizens to contact Dr. Blair and CNN/Headline News, who presented him yesterday, with their own views on these issues.

Here is Dr. Blair's contact information:

Dr. Bruce Blair
President
Center for Defense Information
(www.cdi.org)
bblair@cdi.org

As can be seen [in his response shown above], he is arguing about whether a 20-kiloton bomb could or couldn't kill 5 to 10 million people instantly if exploded over Manhattan, when the real issue is:  Why haven't we closed the nuclear power plants permanently yet?

Thanks in advance,

Russell Hoffman
Carlsbad, CA

My original letter to Dr. Blair, from November 8th, 2001, is posted here:
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/onofre/cdi2001a.htm

Below are some related facts:

==========================================================

FROM: The Effects Of Nuclear Weapons, 1962, page 200, paragraph 5.10.

"In Nagasaki, dwelling collapsed at distances up to 7,500 feet (1.4 miles) from ground zero, where peak overpressure was estimated to be about 3 pounds per square inch, and there was severe structural damage up to 8,500 feet (1.6 miles)."

==========================================================

There are about 10 million people living in the New York "metropolitan area", but the population soars each day as commuters come to work.

(FROM: http://www.ny.com/histfacts/statistics.html )

Area of Manhattan: 22.7 Square miles

Population (these figures do not include daily commuters)

Metropolitan area: 8,643,437 (1998)
City population: 7,420,166 (1998)
·       Bronx 1,195,599
·       Brooklyn 2,267,942
·       Manhattan 1,550,649
·       Queens 1,998,853
·       Staten Island 407,123

=============================================================

FROM:
http://www.rw.doe.gov/wasteaccept/snflocationstable.pdf

"Manhattan College, Bronx, NY" (listed as the site of a research reactor)

=============================================================

Here's a list of radioactive sites in New York which could have their contents released:

FROM: http://www.prop1.org/prop1/radiated/ny0rept.htm

Baker & Williams *
contaminated site
Manhattan, NY
Baker & Williams Warehouse

New York University
Industry & Science
New York, NY

Rad Experiments
1955-68(M.Eisenbud/unknown))

Columbia Presby. Med Cen.
Industry & Science
New York, NY

341 ft3 radwaste disposed / .526 curies disposed
NY refused to identify by category / radwaste also stored

Columbia Presbyterian
Industry & Science
New York, NY

Rad Experiments
1951-54(M.Gray/E.Nelson/R.Loeffler/S.Werner/)

Columbia U
U. Research
New York, NY

Columbia Univ. *
Industry & Science
New York, NY

67 ft3 radwaste disposed / 19.092 curies disposed
NY refused to identify by category / radwaste also stored

Columbia University
Industry & Science
New York, NY

Rad Experiments
1953-57(A.Pientl/R.Rugh)

Montefiore Hospital
Industry & Science
New York, NY

Rad Experiments
1954(S.Seidlin)

New York Poly
U. Research
New York, NY

NY Univ. Bellevue Hosp.
Industry & Science
New York, NY

328 ft3 radwaste disposed / 1.698 curies disposed
NY refused to identify by category / radwaste also stored

Radium Chemical *
contaminated site
New York, NY
NPL Site

Rockefeller Univ.
Industry & Science
New York, NY

149 ft3 radwaste disposed / .276 curies disposed
NY refused to identify by category / radwaste also stored

Sloan-Kettering Inst.
Industry & Science
New York, NY

Rad Experiments
1948-61(J.Rall/J.Nickson/D.Fukushima/R.Rawson)

U.S. EPA *
Industry & Science
New York, NY

1 ft3 radwaste disposed/ 1.311 curies disposed
NY refused to identify by category

USS N.Y.City
Nuclear Powered Ship
New York, NY
L.A. Class sub

V.A.Hospital,New York
Industry & Science
New York, NY

Rad Experiments (J.Dancis/G.Cohen)
1956-72(G.Kaplan/M.Oratz/M.Rothschild/S.Schreiber/

V.A. Med . Cen. *
Industry & Science
New York, NY

Broad medical license for teaching & research
Wide range of radionuclides

=============================================================
11th hour protest against nuclear power:
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/no_nukes/11thhour.htm
For more information please visit:
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/onofre/index.htm

Learn about the effects of nuclear weapons here:
http://www.animatedsoftware.com/environm/no_nukes/tenw/nuke_war.htm
This web page has been presented on the World Wide Web by:

The Animated Software Company
http://www.animatedsoftware.com
Mail to: rhoffman@animatedsoftware.com
First posted November 8th, 2001.

Webwiz: Russell D. Hoffman